Are tulips going to be able to survive the coming challenges expected with climate change effects? Not without our help. 

 

It is already becoming more challenging to grow and harvest tulips the way it was done in the past. Increased temperatures are already reducing the quality and quantity of tulip harvests. Keukenhof, a famous tulip garden in the Netherlands, is already planting 30% more bulbs than last year to create the quantity and quality of  tulips anticipated by the visitors (Morgan, 2022). This percentage will only increase every year. Tulips need a cold period in order to bloom effectively in the spring. However, climate change predictions indicate that significant temperature increases will reduce how many frost days happen in future years in the Netherlands (Amsterdam Tulip Museum, 2017).

 

This will lead to fewer days with temperatures low enough to naturally allow tulips to grow effectively. Planting additional tulip bulbs will only be possible to the point where there is space available. It is likely that some form of cooling may have to be introduced to allow tulips to grow in warmer temperatures. There are a few types of tulips that can still survive increased temperatures such as the Queen of the Night and Menton tulips, because they are later flowering varieties. However, they might not be able to survive at some point if the spring becomes too dry and warm (Morgan, 2022).

 

Pollution is also a severe problem. Three of the most common pollutants Ozone (O3), Sulfur (SO2) and Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), can significantly harm tulip development. Even with more stringent pollutant management, ozone concentrations in the Netherlands are expected to increase over time due to climate change effects (Lacressonniere et al., 2014).

 

With a potential sea-level rise of 0.5m predicted due to climate change effects, more tulip fields may experience extended flood conditions leading to rotted or destroyed flowers (Rising Sea Level, 2015). 

 

Drought conditions also negatively affect tulip health but it is unclear what effect climate change will have on drought, specifically in the Netherlands.

 

I did not do a expirement and therefore had no method

Are tulips going to be able to survive the coming challenges expected with climate change effects? Not without our help. 

 

It is already becoming more challenging to grow and harvest tulips the way it was done in the past. Increased temperatures are already reducing the quality and quantity of tulip harvests. Keukenhof, a famous tulip garden in the Netherlands, is already planting 30% more bulbs than last year to create the quantity and quality of  tulips anticipated by the visitors (Morgan, 2022). This percentage will only increase every year. Tulips need a cold period in order to bloom effectively in the spring. However, climate change predictions indicate that significant temperature increases will reduce how many frost days happen in future years in the Netherlands (Amsterdam Tulip Museum, 2017).

 

This will lead to fewer days with temperatures low enough to naturally allow tulips to grow effectively. Planting additional tulip bulbs will only be possible to the point where there is space available. It is likely that some form of cooling may have to be introduced to allow tulips to grow in warmer temperatures. There are a few types of tulips that can still survive increased temperatures such as the Queen of the Night and Menton tulips, because they are later flowering varieties. However, they might not be able to survive at some point if the spring becomes too dry and warm (Morgan, 2022).

 

Pollution is also a severe problem. Three of the most common pollutants Ozone (O3), Sulfur (SO2) and Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), can significantly harm tulip development. Even with more stringent pollutant management, ozone concentrations in the Netherlands are expected to increase over time due to climate change effects (Lacressonniere et al., 2014).

 

With a potential sea-level rise of 0.5m predicted due to climate change effects, more tulip fields may experience extended flood conditions leading to rotted or destroyed flowers (Rising Sea Level, 2015). 

 

Drought conditions also negatively affect tulip health but it is unclear what effect climate change will have on drought, specifically in the Netherlands.

 

Research question #1: What impact will climate change effects on temperatures have on tulips? 

 

Between 1901 and 2020 the Netherlands annual temperature rose by approximately 2.3° C (World Bank Group, 2011).  These higher temperatures are leading to the dehydration of the flower buds. So the ability to grow tulips is already becoming more difficult. One of the world’s best known tulip gardens, Keukenhof in the Netherlands, is experiencing problems. They need their tulip displays to be ready from March and in order to have the flower quality and quantity expected by their visitors, so they are forced to plant up to 30% more bulbs than usual, recognizing that dehydration is decreasing survivability (Morgan, 2022). 

 

As tulips are originally from Central Asia and they were originally found growing in mountainous areas where the winters were cold. This type of cold stimulates growth of the stems, leaves, and floral buds. If the winter is too mild and wet, tulips will attempt to bloom early with lower success rate and poorer quality. Tulips need colder temperatures to stimulate flowering (Morgan, 2022). Specifically, they need to be planted for about 3 weeks in soil temperatures of 9° C  or cooler, which requires an air temperature of 3 - 6° C (Granneman, N/A) (Amsterdam Tulip Museum, 2017).

 

Tulips do not just need cold temperatures to develop, warmth also plays a role in the cycle. As the temperature reaches 7° C to 12° C, tulips will begin to bloom. However, as spring temperatures increase earlier in the year, the quality of the flowers can be adversely affected. The bulbs will be at a more advanced stage when they bloom. As a result, they need to be harvested and put into storage. H, however, if they are at a more advanced stage in storage they have a lower success rate than natural harvesting. This means a larger number of tulips would not survive or reach an acceptable quality. Tulips in storage are often vulnerable to dehydration because they are no longer receiving water through their roots (Morgan, 2022). As a result, they would be in bloom for a shorter duration than expected. In addition, timing for tulip related activities would have to be adjusted to take place earlier in the year. This would affect the timing of long standing tulip festivals in countries like Canada, the United States and the Netherlands (Chamber of Commerce, 2024). 

Unfortunately, climate change projections predict that the average typical temperatures in many areas, including the Netherlands will continue to increase, possibly significantly. 

 

Figure 1: Global Average Temperature

(Hawkins & Valentine, 2022)

 

Figure 2: Projected Monthly Mean Temperature in the Netherlands through 2039

[World Bank Group, 2011]

 

Figure 3: Projected Monthly Mean Temperature in the Netherlands through 2099

[World Bank Group, 2011]

 

Figure 4: Projected Number of Frost Days in the Netherlands

[World Bank Group, 2011]

 

As shown above, in the Netherlands, the average temperature in December could increase from 4 to 4.89° C  and in January from 2 to 3.89° C by 2040. The average temperature could increase to 6.67° C in January and 7.62° C in December by the year 2100. The number of frost days (a day with some part of the day with a temperature lower than 0° C) in the winter could decrease from 40.3 days in 2014 to as few as 22 days by 2040 and potentially 5.3 days by 2100 (World Bank Group, 2011). 

 

These temperature changes would drastically reduce the success rate and quality of tulip growth in natural conditions. Tulips would not have enough cold days to develop underground and would bloom much earlier in the year. If that was to happen, tulips would not bloom with the expected quality and would not survive for the amount of time they normally do. Successful tulip growth would require refrigeration of tulips, either while planted or after being harvested. One such option could be growing tulips in a facility but this would increase the cost of tulip growth substantially, making them much more expensive. This could significantly reduce their usage. 

 

Research question #2: How will climate change effects on pollution impact tulips?

 

Did you know that the Netherlands released over 170 million metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2019 (The Global Economy, 2024)?

 

Figure 5: Historical Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Netherlands (in kilotons)

[Statista Research Department, 2023 (The Global Economy, 2024)]

 

 Pollution is a significant risk for many plants including tulips. There are three common air pollutants that can damage plants: ozone, sulphur, and peroxyacetyl nitrate. Ozone, also known as O3 is the most common air pollutant in the eastern United States. O3 can damage the cell membrane which can cause the cell to collapse. The damaged plant may have numerous small dots or specks in dead areas. An injury will usually occur when concentration is at its highest (University of Maryland, 2023).

Leaves affected by PAN, also known as peroxyacetyl nitrate, will exhibit spots or patches of paper thin, almost transparent tissues, causing a collapse of tissue on the lower leaf which stunts growth. PAN injury on plants occurs mostly in damp and moist areas (University of Maryland, 2023). 

SO2 is commonly known as sulphur dioxide. SO2 injuries can be common, especially near industrial areas. SO2 can cause a leaf to appear white. If significant enough, this part of a leaf can die (Missouri Botanical Garden, 2022). Nitrogen dioxide has similar symptoms, but damages occur at night. Nitrogen dioxide causes yellowing of leaves (University of Maryland, 2023).

When burning fossil fuels, deforestation or farming livestock, we release climate change-causing gases into the air as well as other harmful air pollutants. Increased temperature like heat or wildfire also releases air pollutants (European Commission, N/A) (Climate Atlas of Canada, N/A).

 

Although government decisions such as standards, targets or limitations on certain activities are expected to reduce pollution, climate change impacts are predicted to increase ozone levels in the Netherlands (Lacressonniere et al., 2014). As shown below, ozone concentrations could increase approximately 15 ug/m3 by 2050. This would put tulips at an increased risk of damage and death.

 

Figure 6: Ozone Concentrations in Europe, Currently [Black], Projected for 2030 [Red] and 2050 [Green] [La Cressonniere et al., 2014]

 

Research Question #3: How will climate change effects on flood risk impact tulips?

 

Tulips are very sensitive to water inundation. Flooding has severely reduced tulip quality and yield around the world over the years. Unexpected flooding of tulips for a notable duration will lead to rotting and fungus of the bulb. If flooding occurs and reduces repeatedly, flooding stress triggers adaptive changes in the roots, which can limit growth of the shoots (Jia, 2021). 

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) can be produced during and after flooding. ROS in high concentrations can damage plant health significantly (Jia, 2021), leading to excessive damage or death. This all assumes the flood water will lower in a short period.

According to climate change projections, sea level is expected to rise by 0.5m by 2071, resulting in extremely severe flooding in the Netherlands (Rising Sea Level, 2015). Given the elevation of the Netherlands, much of the country can remain underwater for some time in a severe flood event (Research Gate 2015). In response to extreme potential flood outcomes, how the Netherlands responds by increasing flood protection could determine what risk tulip fields will have of being flooded. Generally, tulip fields have local drainage trenches that enable the areas to manage some inundation, however this doesn’t manage direct rainfall on tulips or water levels exceeding the capacity of the drainage ditches. 

 

Figure 7: Inundation Map of the Netherlands

[Research Gate, 2020]

 

Figure 8: Rate of Flood Rise

[Rising Sea Level, N/A]

 

Research Question #4: How will climate change effects on drought affect tulips? 

 

Drought is a serious problem as it can hinder plant respiration and photosynthesis which affects plant growth. In response to drought stress, plants activate their drought response mechanisms, potentially extending shoots or using other approaches. The main effect of water loss is dwarfing and loss of vigour (Yang, 2021). Plants under drought stress adapt to the changing environment by doing phenotypic plasticity, which is the ability to produce phenotypes, a set of observable characteristics. They do this to modify developmental trajectories and is also how organisms change their phenotypic state (Fusco & Minelli, 2010). 

 

Some other symptoms of water loss in flowers or plants are a decrease in growth, wilting leaves and reduced leaf area. A plant’s height will decrease when the cell expands and there is an increase in plant shedding. Under drought stress, leaves will shrink, thicken and have a higher density tissue. This will affect the amount of photosynthesis gained by the plant (Yang, 2021). 

The internal form also responds to drought stress. In the outer wall of the leaf epidermis, there is a lipid membrane which reduces the amount of water evaporated in the atmosphere. The membrane also will reduce transpiration which improves the energy of the plant. 

 

The Netherlands has recently undergone periods of drought (Dutch Drought, 2023). Generally, climate change is causing more frequent periods of extreme drought around the world. However, in the Netherlands, it is not clear that drought will become a more significant concern that it is currently (Climate Adapt, 2024).

 

Figures 9: Rainfall Deficit

  [Dutch Drought, 2023]         

 

Figure 10: Historical Aridity in Europe (Climate Adapt, 2024)

 

 

Figure 11: Predicted Future Aridity in Europe (Climate Adapt, 2024)

 

 

 Tulips are a main supporter of pollinators because they provide pollen that can be transferred (Wilson, 2019). If we lose our  pollinators we could lose a large portion of our global crops (Wilson, 2019). Tulip loss could also drastically harm economies around the world, mainly the Netherlands, which generates a reveune of $370 million CDN each year by exporting tulips (Topher & Brandt, 2021). Certain cities within the United States and Canada depend on tulips (Chamber of Commerce, 2024) for festivals and other social value.

 Increased temperatures are already reducing the quality and quantity of tulip harvests. Keukenhof, a famous tulip garden in the Netherlands, which is already planting 30% more bulbs than last year to create the quantity and quality of  tulips anticipated by the visitors (Morgan, 2022). Tulips need a cold period in order to bloom effectively in the spring. However, climate change predictions indicate that significant temperature increases will reduce how many frost days happen in future years in the Netherlands (Amsterdam Tulip Museum, 2017)

 Planting additional tulip bulbs will be required to the point where there is space available. It is likely that some form of cooling may have to be introduced to allow tulips to grow in warmer temperatures. There are a few types of tulips that can still survive increased temperatures such as the Queen of the Night and Menton tulips, because they are later flowering varieties. However, they might not be able to survive at some point if the spring becomes too dry and warm (Morgan, 2022).

 

Pollution is also a severe problem. Three of the most common pollutants Ozone (O3), Sulfur (SO2) and Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), can significantly harm tulip development. Even with more stringent pollutant management, ozone concentrations in the Netherlands are expected to increase over time due to climate change effects (Lacressonniere et al., 2014).

 

With a potential sea-level rise of 0.5m predicted due to climate change effects, more tulip fields may experience extended flood conditions leading to rotted or destroyed flowers (Rising Sea Level, 2015). 

 

Drought conditions also negatively affect tulip health but it is unclear what effect climate change will have on drought, specifically in the Netherlands. 

 

Overall, it appears that considering predicted climate change effects, tulips will not be able to be produced at the present quality and quantity without additional support. Significant steps will be required to either manage climate change effects or support tulip growth as climate change effects increase. These steps will be costly. However, it could also prove costly to not support tulip growth given the benefits they provide economically, socially and most importantly, environmentally. 

 

 

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I would like to acknowledge Sjoerd van Vilsteren of Wageningen University. He was kind enough to answer questions from me related to how the Netherlands manages flood, drought and pollution for tulips. 

I would also like to thank Ms. Sara Haney for answering questions and editing my work and Dr. Miri Renert for editing my work.