There are over a dozen baseball pitches, from a changeup to a curveball. In this project I will be researching the MLB statistics of 6 different baseball pitches in order to find which one is the most difficult to hit.

Hypothesis

My hypothesis is that the splitter is the hardest pitch to hit. I think the splitter is the hardest pitch to hit because if you watch a baseball game you can see how crazy the splitter moves. It looks like a fastball at first, then suddenly drops, causing the hitter to swing over the ball. It is a very difficult pitch to hit, and I think it is the hardest to one to make contact with.

In this project, my method for finding answers is to look at the total number of pitches thrown by every MLB pitcher in 2025. By analyzing MLB statistics, I can see the percentage of players hitting different types of pitches. I will examine the following data:

• Whiff Rate = Do hitters hit it or miss it?
• Batting Average = Do hitters get hits off the pitch?
• Strikeout % = Does it get hitters out at bat?

Once I complete this data analysis, I will compare my research and, based on the statistics, determine if there is a clear answer to which pitch is the hardest to hit.

“Hitting a baseball is the hardest thing to do in sports. You’ve got a round bat, a round ball, and they’re coming together at speeds of 90‑95 mph and that’s with breaking balls, sliders, curveballs, whatever. If you can do that three out of ten times, you’re doing real well.” — Ted Williams

- Baseball Analytica - 7/21/2023.

These data points are areas where we will determine what will tell us the hardest pitch to hit.

1.Contact rate of a pitch 2.Spin and movement of the pitch type 3. Contact quality by pitch type 4. Batting against by pitch type

Based on my research I changed the data points to:

1.Whiff rate(Do hitters hit it or miss it) 2.Batting average(Do players get a hit or not) Strikeout%(Does it get hitters out at bat)

These will give us a clearer picture of what batters face and their results against the hardest pitches in an at bat.

1 percent of time a pitcher throws a type of pitch that will also have an impact on their outcomes and those of the batter. How a batter then researches and prepares can then have an impact on their success rate as well. (some players historically hit some pitchers very well based on this).

We can also analyze the science of throwing some of these pitches and how hard they are to master in today's game and how that has evolved.

The definition of pitching: is to throw the baseball towards the batter to start the play.

The definition of batting: is to stand at home plate trying to hit the opponents pitch.

The definition of the fastball: A fast pitch moving straight from low 90s to 100 miles per hour

The definition of the split finger: An offspeed pitch looking like a fastball and splitting down at the last second.

The definition of the curveball:An offspeed pitch curving down.

The definition of the slider: An offspeed pitch sliding from the batter.

The definition of the changeup: An offspeed pitch moving in inconsistently to get a batter swinging early.

The definition of the cutter: A high velocity pitch cutting sharply.

Speed of the fastball: A pitch ranging from 90 to over 100 miles per hour.

Speed of the split finger: A pitch ranging from 80 miles per hour to low 90s.

Speed of the curveball: A pitch coming around 80 miles per hour.

Speed of the slider:A pitch ranging from 80 to 90 miles per hour.

Speed of the changeup: A pitch ranging from 80 to 85 miles per hour.

Speed of the cutter: A pitch ranging from 85 to 95 miles per hour.

Did you know:

• Every MLB game, there are approximately 146 pitches are thrown per team
• The average number of pitches per inning is around 16 - 17
• The approximate average speed of a pitch was 94.3 mph
• The average reaction time for a batter (at that speed) is .038 seconds
• Most starting pitchers average 6 innings per game with an average of 97 pitches (varies by game)
• Relievers throw quite a bit less, averaging around 20-30 pitches (varies by game)
• Mason Miller (Athletics) threw the hardest pitch last year reaching an incredible 104.1 mph

From MLB statistics

Here is the pitch and the percentage of total swinging strikes

Fastball: 3.07% of 665,627 pitches thrown

Split finger: 3% of 141,561 pitches thrown

Curveball: 1.44% of 352,381 pitches thrown

Slider: 2.96% of 504,903 pitches thrown

Changeup:2.08 % of 485,059

Cutter : 1.62% of 326063

Batting averages for each pitch

• Sliders sliders have high-velocity/sweepers Mason Miller’s slider boasted a 55.2% whiff rate, and Andrés Muñoz’s slider held opponents to a .103 batting average, the lowest against any qualified pitch.
• Splitters: Logan Gilbert’s splitter had a 50.0% whiff rate. Fernando Cruz’s splitter also ranked among the league leaders in inducing whiffs.With a batting average around 200 to 210.
• Four-Seam Fastball in the top Zone While not breaking, a high-velocity, high-spin four-seamer (95+ mph) at the top of the zone is considered one of the hardest to hit due to the "rising" effect, often leading to weak contact or whiffs. Bryan Woo’s four-seamer held batters to a .153 average in 2025.
• Changeup is getting hit about 159 for a batting average.
• Cutter with a batting average around 300. Curve balls with a batting average around 140.

Why each pitch tricks the batter

Fastball:It can trick the batter because the batter may be looking for a offspeed and then having to react to high heat.

Split finger:It looks like a fastball and drops down right at the last second.

Curveball:It disrupts the batter's timing coming in at a lower speed.

Slider:It also looks like a fastball and then sharply slides from the batter.

Changeup:A pitch moving inconsistently to affect the batter's timing.

Cutter:A high velocity pitch cutting sharply for batter's to swing in the wrong spots.

• Fernando Cruz's Splitter: Led all qualified pitches with a higher whiff rate than 55.2%.
• Andrés Muñoz's Slider: Generated whiffs on over half of all swings against it, limiting opponents to a .103 batting average.
• Logan Gilbert's Splitter: Posted a 50.0% whiff rate, with opponents hitting only .115 against it.
• Tarik Skubal's Changeup: Recorded a 31.4% whiff rate with high usage, earning "A+" grades for effectiveness.

As of the end of the 2025 MLB season, Mason Miller's slider and Fernando Cruz's splitter were among the highest whiff-rate pitches, with Miller's slider generating a 55.2% whiff rate and ranking as a premier, high-value pitch in baseball. Additionally, Andres Muñoz's slider was highly effective, with over 50% of swings against it being whiffs. within the strike zone (Z-Contact%). When looking at total swings, the average swinging strike rate for fastballs is roughly 8.75 percent. Key Data on Fastball Contact and Performance

• In-Zone Contact: Hitters make contact with approximately 88% of fastballs thrown in the strike zone.
• Outside-Zone Contact: Contact on fastballs outside the zone averages around 63%.
• Velocity Impact: While higher velocity (95+ mph) is designed to induce misses, even elite fastballs often allow a significant amount of contact, as shown by Aroldis Chapman's 63% in-zone contact rate in 2014.
• Spin Rate Relation: Higher spin rates on four-seam fastballs (average \~2,306 RPM) generally increase "rise" or "carry," which can lead to higher whiff rates at the top of the zone.
• Usage: Fastballs remain the most commonly used pitch (approx. 57-62% usage).

Based on early 2025 trends, the sweeper saw increased usage, while traditional, lower-usage pitches continued to be put in play less frequently as pitchers optimized for strikeouts. However, specific, finalized 2025 data confirming the single least-in-play pitch (such as a knuckleball or specific rare pitch type).

Early baseball pitching was defined by lower velocities and different measurement techniques compared to the modern era. While today’s pitchers hit 100+ mph, 1960s-70s fastballs averaged 85-90 mph, and earlier eras were slower. Furthermore, historic measurements like Nolan Ryan’s 100.8 mph (1974) were taken 10 feet from the plate, which, if adjusted to today’s release-point standard, would likely be higher.

From MLB statistics

Based on research, my conclusion is that the hardest pitch to hit is the Splitter.

Out of the three areas of data I looked at, strikeout percentage, batting average, and whiff rate, the splitter ranked number one in all three. It had the highest strikeout percentage (overall outs), the lowest batting average (batters struggled to hit it), and the highest whiff rate (batters swung and missed at it the most).

These were the most important statistical categories for measuring how difficult each pitch was to hit. In all three categories, the split-finger ranked number one, showing it is the hardest pitch to hit. These results support my hypothesis that the splitter is the most difficult pitch to hit.

A whiff is when a batter swings and misses a pitch. In this project, I looked at the hardest pitch to hit, and whiff rate helps measure that by showing how often batters miss. A high whiff rate means batters swung and missed this pitch most of the time.

The data shows that the split-finger pitch has a 31.46% whiff rate. This means batters swung and missed at it the most.

Batting Average:

Batting average shows how often a batter gets a hit (total hits by total at bats). For example, a .300 batting average (higher quality hitter) means the batter gets a hit 3 out of 10 times. In this project, it tells us how hard a pitch is to hit.

• A low batting average means the pitch is hard and hitters don’t get many hits.
• A high batting average means the pitch is easier and hitters get more hits.

The data shows the split-finger pitch has a .204 batting average, which is the lowest batting average of the six pitches I looked at. This means two out of ten times, a batter gets a hit off this pitch.

Strikeout % Strikeout percentage (K%) is the percent of times a batter strikes out, which happens when they get three strikes in an at-bat. It is important because a high strikeout percentage means the pitch is very hard to hit, and hitters are getting out more often. The data shows the split-finger has a 27.6 strikeout percentage. This means batters strike out 27.6% of the time when facing this pitch which is the highest strikeout rate of the six pitches we researched.

1.Baseball savant https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search

2.Mlb.com https://www.mlb.com/

3.Baseball Analytica.https://baseball-analytica.com/

I want to acknowledge the Calgary youth Science fair for giving me this amazing opportunity to be in the Science fair.

Also I want to thank my amazing Science fair leader Mrs.Spelay thank you for guiding me through this project.

Lastly I would like to thank my parents Katherine and David plus my sister Ella who made it to the youth science fair last year and won a gold medal.