The problem that I am researching about is pandemics and some of their patterns. I would like to learn about their patterns so that we can implement measures to prevent them from happening in the future.

1. First I will conduct my background research in order to be able to fully understand the information about pandemics that I will research. 2. Then I will start my research on three pandemics answering the main questions about them such as what they are\, where they originated\, when did it start and end (or the timeline)\, and why did it happen. 3. After finishing my research\, I will carefully read through the information about each pandemic and will try to find some patterns in them. 4. After finding and recording the patterns\, I will state what I think is an appropriate measure to the patterns so that they may be avoided.

Background Research

The terms of endemic, outbreak, epidemic and pandemic are all related to the happenings of a health condition and its rate and spread in geographical areas. An endemic is the spread of disease at a predictable rate in a population. An outbreak is the spread of disease that is unpredicted of or in the occurrence of cases in a new area. An epidemic is an outbreak that spreads to a greater span of geographical areas and a pandemic is an epidemic that spreads around the whole world. Pandemics are large-scale outbreaks of diseases that spread over a large area in a short amount of time and can increase morbidity and mortality within people. They cause a great amount of economic, social, and political disruption and usually happen with new viruses that most people do not have immunity against. The probability of organism to human transmission of pathogens has greatly increased because of the increased interactions with animals in areas like hunting, animal farming, trading of animal-based food, wet markets and the trade of exotic pets. The transmission of pathogens is also greatly influenced by climate change because it can expand the habitats of different common zoonotic disease-carrying animals. When animal borne pathogens emerge in non-endemic regions, it often leads to an explosive epidemic. Furthermore, the spread of multiple infectious diseases like tuberculosis, malaria, and cholera are now becoming a concern to a significant portion of the population. These diseases are now spreading more because of things like the acquisition of drug resistance, increasing tolerance of mosquitoes to insecticides, poor sanitation, land use and climate change and also the increase of human traveling. 

There are two main ways that pandemics are caused: The first main way a pandemic can be caused is by human-animal interactions. These pandemics are known as zoonotic pandemics and usually happens in five phases:

Phase 1: A new virus emerges in animals but does not infect humans. Phase 2: A new strain of the virus is developed and starts to infect humans because of animal and human contact (zoonotic spillover). The virus spreads from one person to another but stays limited and does not cause a community-wide outbreak. Phase 3: The new virus starts spreading enough to cause an outbreak within a community, but is still very limited.  Phase 4: The virus now starts rapidly spreading in a few countries but not enough for it to be considered a pandemic.  Phase 5: The virus spreads worldwide and is now considered a pandemic.

Another way that pandemics are caused are by the lack of basic hygiene. An example of this is when people used to drink and bathe in sewage where viruses like cholera thrived. Those people would end up infected and since no one knew what measures needed to be taken to prevent the pandemic, the virus would spread all around the world.

Research (Covid-19)

What it is:  COVID-19 (coronavirus disease of 2019) is a respiratory illness caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2, which emerged in late 2019 and became a global pandemic. It usually spreads through airborne droplets between people in close contact. Symptoms range from mild to severe, and it can cause serious illness or death, particularly in older adults and those with underlying health conditions Where did it originate:  There have been numerous studies to determine the origins of Covid-19, but none has been conclusive. The coronaviruses behind Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) developed from bats. COVID-19 first appeared on a small scale in November 2019 with the first large cluster of cases appearing in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. It was first thought that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, made the jump to humans at one of Wuhan, China’s, open-air “wet markets.” Wet markets are partially or fully open-air markets that sell fresh produce and meat. China's in-country World Health Organization office learned of multiple pneumonia cases of unknown cause with symptoms such as fever and shortness of breath that seemed to be connected to the market. When did it start and end (timeline):  In late 2019, a mysterious pneumonia emerged in Wuhan, China, leading the World Health Organization to alert the world to a novel coronavirus. By 2020, the virus went global, causing a formal pandemic declaration in March that forced lockdowns around the world and the eventual December release of vaccines. 2021 was defined by mass vaccination efforts and the rise of the highly contagious Delta and Omicron variants, while 2022 saw record infections but a gradual lifting of restrictions as immunity increased. Finally, in May 2023, both the WHO and the U.S. government officially ended their public health emergency declarations, shifting COVID-19 to a long-term managed health issue. Why did it happen:  The Covid-19 pandemic could have happened because of either zoonotic spillover or a laboratory related incident. As of June 2025 though, the WHO's Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO) concluded that while a natural origin is most plausible based on current data, all hypotheses remain on the table until more transparent data is provided. There is, however, a broad agreement that the virus was not developed as a biological weapon or through genetic engineering.

Research (Spanish Flu)

What is it: The Spanish Flu (1918–1920) was a devastating global pandemic caused by an H1N1 influenza A virus, infecting around 500 million people which was one-third of the world's population at the time. It caused an estimated 17 to 50 million (or up to 100 million) deaths, even greater than the World War I casualties. The virus was uniquely lethal to healthy young adults aged 20–40 Where did it originate: There are four main hypotheses as to where the Spanish flu originated. The first one is that it originated in Haskell County, Kansas which is an isolated and sparsely populated county in the southwest corner of the state. The second is that it began in Asia, citing a deadly outbreak of pulmonary disease in China. The third hypothesis is that the virus was spread by Chinese or Vietnamese laborers either crossing into the United States or working in France. The final hypothesis is that the Spanish Flu originated in a British Army post located in France. After researching more to prove these hypotheses, the researchers found that all of these could not have been the cause except for it originating in the United States. The evidence strongly suggested that the Spanish Flu started in the U.S. and then spread to Europe through traveling army troops. When did it start and end (timeline): The Spanish flu emerged in 1918 when the first mention of the flu was reported in Haskell, Kansas. Then, in September that year, the second wave of the flu emerged in Camp Devens, outside of Boston. Following that, the flu spreads throughout all of the United States. After that, in January 1919, the third and final wave of the flu hits San Francisco and San Antonio infecting around 2000 people. Then, in fall 1920, the pandemic was officially declared over. The pandemic lasted for about 1-2 years. Why did it happen: The 1918 pandemic occurred because a novel H1N1 virus of avian origin mutated to infect a human population that had zero immunity, occurring at the same time as the peak of World War I. This global conflict acted as a massive people-mover, as overcrowded troop transports and unsanitary trenches facilitated rapid global spread and likely fueled the virus's mutation into a deadlier second wave. The pandemic was worsened by a lack of medical tools, as viruses were not yet understood, and the absence of antibiotics made doctors unable to treat the deadly bacterial pneumonia that followed the infection.

Research (Hong Kong Flu)

What is it: The Hong Kong flu, also known as the 1968 flu pandemic, was an influenza pandemic that occurred between 1968 and 1970 and it killed between one and four million people globally. It is one of the deadliest pandemics in history, and was caused by an H3N2 strain of the influenza A virus. The virus was descended from H2N2 (which caused the Asian flu pandemic in 1957–1958) through antigenic shift, a genetic process in which genes from multiple subtypes are reassorted to form a new virus. Where did it originate:  The 1968 Hong Kong flu (H3N2) originated in mainland China in early 1968 before spreading to Hong Kong, where it was first officially identified in July 1968. It likely emerged from Southeast Asian provinces such as Guangdong or further north in 1968. This was before causing a massive, rapid outbreak in the densely populated British colony, leading to a global pandemic. When did it start and end (timeline): The 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic was a global outbreak caused by the H3N2 strain of the influenza A virus, which first officially emerged in Hong Kong on July 13, 1968. Boosted by dense urban living and early commercial air travel, the virus spread explosively, infecting roughly 15% of Hong Kong's population in just two weeks before reaching Vietnam and Singapore by late July. By September, the pandemic had expanded to India, the Philippines, northern Australia, and Europe. It entered the United States that same month via returning Vietnam War troops, though it did not become a widespread American epidemic until December. While the U.S. was hit hardest during the first winter, many other regions in Japan, Africa, and South America experienced their deadliest waves throughout 1969 and into early 1970. By the time the pandemic subsided in 1970, it had caused an estimated 1 to 4 million deaths worldwide, though the H3N2 strain continues to circulate today as a seasonal flu.  Why did it happen: The 1968 Hong Kong flu pandemic was primarily caused by a major genetic mutation known as antigenic shift, which produced the novel H3N2 influenza A virus. This new strain emerged when the existing human flu virus swapped genes with an avian influenza virus, resulting in a hemagglutinin protein (H3) that the human immune system had no prior defense against. Beyond biology, the pandemic's rapid global reach was fueled by the extreme population density of Hong Kong, where the virus first rapidly increased in July 1968. Its spread was further accelerated by the rise of modern commercial air travel and significant military movements during the Vietnam War, allowing it to blanket the globe in just two years. While it caused an estimated 1 to 4 million deaths by 1970, its severity was somewhat limited because many people retained partial immunity to the virus's unchanged "N2" component from previous flu seasons.

Patterns Found

Out of the three pandemics I researched, I found three main patterns:

1. Two out of the three pandemics were caused by mutations (Spanish flu and Hong Kong flu)
2. Three out of the three pandemics were spread via respiratory means (coughing, sneezing, etc.)
3. Similar symptoms such as fever, cough, fatigue, pneumonia, etc.

Some ways we can distance ourselves from these:

1. Monitor animal viruses (especially avian) and figure out the possible ways for them to mutate in order to be prepared for a new strain.
2. Be careful of how you talk, cough, and sneeze to prevent potential pandemics from surfacing
3. Learn how to treat the most common symptoms and keep the basic medications needed at home

In conclusion, pandemics is the name given to the global spread of disease across the world at a very unpredictable rate. They cause a great deal of economic, social, and political disruption. The probability of a pandemic has increased greatly because of factors like human-animal interactions and global transportation. In this project, I researched three of the very big pandemics in recent history in order to learn how they become pandemics and think of potential ways to stop them. I came up with three main ways: monitor viruses in animals (especially avian), beware of what comes out of your mouth in order to stop potential pandemic causes from spreading and learn how to treat common symptoms and keep basic medication at home.

• https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK525302/
• https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/what-is-pandemic
• https://www.pfizer.com/news/articles/where_do_pandemics_come_from#:~:text=More%20recently%2C%20pandemics%20have%20tended,for%20that%2C%E2%80%9D%20Purdy%20says.
• http://frontiersin.org/journals/microbiology/articles/10.3389/fmicb.2020.631736/full
• https://www.webmd.com/covid/coronavirus
• https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7470595/
• https://www.cdc.gov/museum/timeline/covid19.html
• https://www.britannica.com/event/influenza-pandemic-of-1918-1919
• https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC340389/
• https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/pandemic-timeline-1918.htm
• https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/symptoms-causes/syc-20479963
• https://www.lung.org/lung-health-diseases/lung-disease-lookup/covid-19/about-covid-19#:~:text=COVID%2D19%2C%20short%20for%20coronavirus%20disease%202019%2C%20is,It%20can%20cause%20mild%20to%20severe%20illness.
• https://iris.who.int/server/api/core/bitstreams/edbba13e-71d6-49e8-9490-9c19f072137b/content
• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu#:~:text=The%20Hong%20Kong%20flu%2C%20also%20known%20as,are%20reassorted%20to%20form%20a%20new%20virus.

This project would not have been possible without the help of multiple people including my dad, science teacher, vice principal, and my brother. I would like to acknowledge the role of all of these people in my project and helping me make it the way it is now.