Our world is inhabited by 8 billion humans that produce 2.12 billion tons in waste annually. China’s population is 17.6% of the world’s population. With China’s carbon emissions being the largest emitter of carbon dioxide gas in the world (11,903 million metric tons emitted in 2023) it is important that we find cleaner, more efficient ways to produce clean energy.

On December 25, 2024, China’s government approved the construction of what will become the world's largest hydroelectric dam. While the official name of the dam has not been explicitly mentioned Kam Tok Dam, Me Dog Dam, and the Yar Lung Tsang Po Dam mega-dam are among some of the names it has been given so far. For the purpose of this project the hydroelectric dam will be referred to as the Kam Tok Dam.

The Kam Tok Dam is a groundbreaking hydroelectric dam that will immensely improve and help China's carbon initiatives. This hydropower plant is estimated to generate 3 times the amount of energy compared to the Three Gorges Dam, which is the current record holder for the largest hydroelectric dam in the world. This magnificent dam is set to cost roughly $137 billion USD or 1 trillion Yen to build.

While this project may seem beneficial and solution oriented towards preserving our environment, what long term effects will the Kam Tok Dam have on the environment, including, the earth's atmosphere, displacement of humans and animals, and the environment surrounding the dam and do the benefits outweigh the cost.

My method for finding information and learning about the Kam Tok Dam is to research different existing dams and by using these existing examples I can reference and estimate what the effects of the Kam Tok Dam will be.

In my project I will discuss:

1. The impact of the renewable energy created
2. The impact on the environment

1. Downstream Effects
2. Earth's atmosphere
3. Landslides

3. The Impacts on citizens

I would like to mention that most of the information that has been gathered for my report comes from multiple sources outside of China. This is because the Chinese government has limited releasing details related to the Kam Tok Dam.

The Impact of Renewable Energy Created

As part of China's first energy law, the country has embarked on an ambitious plan to construct numerous new dams and energy reserves. This initiative aims to achieve peak carbon emissions by 2030 and ultimately reach carbon neutrality by 2060. The proposed Kam Tok Dam, a centerpiece of this strategy, is projected to generate an astounding 300 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually, which is triple the output of the Three Gorges Dam. This massive energy production could potentially power up to 300 million people, representing nearly one-fifth of China's 1.4 billion population. The scale of the Kam Tok Dam's potential energy generation is truly remarkable and could significantly accelerate China's transition towards a lower-carbon economy. Currently, coal accounts for approximately 62% of China's energy production, contributing substantially to the country's greenhouse gas emissions. The introduction of the Kam Tok Dam could dramatically reduce this reliance on coal, replacing a significant portion of fossil fuel-based electricity with clean hydropower. This shift towards hydroelectric power aligns with China's broader environmental goals. Recent forecasts from state energy group Sinopec suggest that China's coal consumption may peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons. The Kam Tok Dam, along with other renewable energy projects, could play a crucial role in ensuring this peak occurs as predicted and facilitating a faster transition away from coal. Moreover, the dam's potential impact extends beyond just replacing coal-fired power. By providing a massive influx of clean energy, it could accelerate the electrification of other sectors, such as transportation and industry, further reducing overall carbon emissions. This aligns with projections that non-fossil energy supply, led by solar and wind, will likely exceed the equivalence of 3 billion metric tons of standard coal by 2045, becoming the dominant energy source for more than half of China's primary energy consumption. However, it's important to note that while the Kam Tok Dam offers significant potential for reducing carbon emissions, its construction and operation also come with environmental and social challenges that must be carefully managed. Balancing the need for clean energy with ecological preservation and the rights of local communities will be crucial for the project's long-term success and sustainability.

The Impact on the Environment

The environmental impact that the Kam Tok Dam can potentially cause can be broken into 3 groups:

1. Downstream Effects (river and animals)

The Kam Tok Dam has many effects on the river and animals including modifications to the river itself through loss of nutrients and sedimentation. All rivers have sedimentation that flows with the current, this sedimentation contains many nutrients needed for plants downstream to survive, along with providing shelter for many animals and stability within the environment. Dams can also change the temperature of the river it is built on negatively impacting the animals and plants that live in or near the river. It can also change the overall shape of the river and natural structure of the rivers. For example, the Aswan High Dam in Egypt has completely halted flooding in the Nile Delta floodplain, depriving agricultural lands of nutrient-rich sediment. Similarly, the Akosombo Dam on the Volta River has reduced flooding and dried out floodplain lakes, impacting local ecosystems. In the Mekong River, upstream dams have reduced sediment flow during the wet season, threatening fisheries and agriculture that depend on fertile floodplain

2. Earth's atmosphere

In recent years NASA has discovered that the earth's rotation has been gradually slowing due to the large redistribution of water created by the Three Gorges Dam (currently the world's current largest dam). The Three Gorges Dam has the capacity to store 39.3 billion cubic meters of water. This is equivalent to approximately 10 trillion gallons of water. This significant redistribution of mass on earth causes the earth's rotation to slow by 0.06 milliseconds per day. While the exact size or volume of water the Kam Tok Dam can hold has not yet been released, the annual flow of the Yarlung Tsangpo into India and Bangladesh is estimated at 600 billion cubic meters which in comparison to the three gorges dam that has an annual flow rate of 451 billion cubic meters we can infer that the dam will hold 52.2 billion cubic meters of water. Meaning that, the Kam Tok dam can potentially slow the earth's rotation by up to 0.08 milliseconds per day. This phenomenon is created when the weight distribution on the earth’s surface is thrown off by such a significant amount that the earths axis is tilted and it slows the rotation of the earth. In the long run, this would mean our days would gradually gets longer affecting the weather, along with the air and ocean currents. 

3. Landslides

The Kam Tok dam is being built in what is called a landslide hotspot, which is a location where landslides are prone due to many different factors. The dam itself would not directly cause landslides, but the water stored behind it could significantly increase the risk. Because the soil is already so delicate, any changes within the environment, such as humidity levels or increased water saturation, could trigger a massive landslide or separation of the soil. Slopes between 30° and 40° are the most frequent sites for landslides, and the addition of water can make these slopes even more unstable by adding weight, lowering the strength of the material, and reducing friction. The dam itself can alter the rivers dynamics, destabilizing the mountains slopes and increasing the already high risk of landslides. This is particularly concerning given the area's history of landslide-flood events. In October 2018, a massive landslide in the region formed a barrier lake, affecting over 20,000 residents and leading to the evacuation of 6,000 people. The reactivation of this landslide just days later resulted in the relocation of 67,449 people in Tibetan areas. Given these factors, the construction of the Kam Tok dam in this landslide-prone area raises significant concerns about potential catastrophic events and their impact on local communities and ecosystems

The Impacts on Citizens

The proposed Kam Tok Dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo River has sparked significant geopolitical, environmental, and social concerns due to its potential impacts on India, Bangladesh, and Tibet. The dam could give China control over the timing and volume of water flowing downstream, raising fears of "water wars" among neighbouring countries. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu has warned that China could use the dam as a "water bomb," potentially disrupting water security and livelihoods in India and Bangladesh. Environmental risks include landslides and earthquakes affecting water quality and ecosystems, while construction may lead to the destruction of monasteries and ancient temples in Tibet, displacing local communities and prompting protests. Despite these challenges, the dam is expected to generate significant power, aligning with China's green energy goals. As Pema Khandu stated, "China's construction of the world's largest hydropower dam poses significant risks to the water security, ecology, and livelihoods of millions of people downstream," while environmentalists warn that harnessing the river could affect water flow in India’s northeastern states and Bangladesh. Additionally, geo-political tensions are heightened by concerns over a potential nuclear conflict, which could have devastating global impacts, as seen in past, nuclear incidents cause widespread injuries and environmental damage. This concern is exacerbated by China’s “unilateral actions,” as stated by Indian officials in early January 2021. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between China and India, which expired in June 2023, previously ensured hydrological data sharing, but its renewal remains uncertain, further straining diplomatic relations. The MoU included provisions for China to provide hydrological information, such as water levels, discharge, and rainfall, to Indian authorities. If a nuclear war were to occur, it would greatly impact citizens worldwide. Previous nuclear conflicts have caused death and injuries to thousands, including lung injuries, ear damage, internal bleeding, and burns from thermal radiation. Individuals could also be exposed to carbon monoxide poisoning and/or cancer from radiation. Another consideration is the potential destruction of heritage sites and ancient temples. Many monasteries and temples have been built in the Tibetan mountains surrounding the proposed dam area. For construction to proceed, engineers would need to reroute water towards the dam, which would require diverting rivers and potentially destroying monasteries and temples, forcing some citizens to relocate. These developments have sparked outrage among citizens, leading to multiple riots in recent months. Nevertheless, the dam could also improve lives by providing electricity, reducing carbon emissions, and enhancing well-being.

Conclusion

The Impact of Renewable Energy Created

The development of new dams, particularly the Kam Tok Dam, plays a crucial role in China's strategy to reduce its carbon footprint and transition to sustainable energy. In turn, this benefits our planet earth and everyone’s future. By generating massive amounts of clean electricity, these efforts will not only help China achieve its carbon neutrality goals but also set a precedent for large-scale renewable energy initiatives worldwide.

The Impact on the Environment

The Kam Tok Dam, while promising significant energy benefits, also poses substantial environmental challenges. Its impact on downstream ecosystems, potential effects on Earth's rotation, and heightened risk of landslides highlight the complex consequences of large-scale dam projects. Balancing renewable energy goals with environmental sustainability will be crucial in mitigating these risks and ensuring long-term ecological stability.

The Impacts on Citizens

The construction of the Kam Tok Dam brings both significant benefits and serious concerns. While it has the potential to reduce carbon emissions and provide electricity to millions, it also threatens water security, cultural heritage, and geopolitical stability. The potential for reduced water flow, environmental degradation, and even geopolitical tensions—including the risk of nuclear conflict—underscores the complexities of this project. Striking a balance between development and sustainability will be essential to ensuring the well-being of affected communities while minimizing the dam’s negative consequences.

Final Conclusion

The Kam Tok Dam project exemplifies the complex challenges of balancing renewable energy development with environmental preservation and human rights. While it promises significant clean energy generation to support China's neutrality goals the dam also poses severe threats to local ecosystems, cultural heritage, and regional stability. The hydroelectric has sparked widespread protests and international concern, with UN experts warning of "irreversible destruction" to cultural sites and biodiversity. The forced displacement of thousands of Tibetans, destruction of ancient monasteries, and potential impacts on water security for downstream nations highlight the profound social and geopolitical implications. Moreover, the dam's environmental consequences extend beyond local impacts, potentially affecting climate stability and increasing the risk of natural disasters. As the world stuggles with the urgent need for sustainable energy solutions, the Kam Tok Dam serves as a stark reminder that renewable energy projects must be implemented with careful consideration of their broader impacts on communities, ecosystems, and international relations. Striking a balance between clean energy preservation and  the preservation of cultural and environmental heritage remains a critical challenge for the future of global sustainability efforts. 

Application

The Kam Tok Dam is an important addition to producing renewable energy in an overpopulated country. If the Kam Tok Dam can be built, it will become a main source of energy for Western China’s population. This will help divert much of the pollution currently being created by the country. It is estimated that the energy created from the Kam Tok Dam can provide energy for up to 300 million individuals, which is almost a fifth of China’s population. To put this in perspective, one-fifth of China's population is equivalent to the population of the United States, Indonesia, or Pakistan. Imagine if all of the energy in the United States was produced by renewable energy, what a positive impact it would have on the environment.

Citations

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Acknowledgements

Thank you Mr. Thompson for being so supportive on this project. I had a lot of questions and got confused a lot and I really appreciate your patience and encouragement while I worked on this project.

Thank you Colonel Irvine School for participating in the Calgary Youth Science Fair so that I could have this experience.

Thank you to my grandpa Hanson Chan for providing me with this fantastic idea for this project.

I would also like to acknowledge my parents for supporting and encouraging me to join the science fair and continuously pushing me to improve my project

Thank you to all the volunteers at CYSF!!!